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Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business, University of Aarhus Working Papers, Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business, University of Aarhus

No 01-5:
Has the accuracy of energy demand projections in the OECD countries improved since the 1970s?

Jan Bentzen () and Hans Linderoth ()

Abstract: Since the 1970s almost all OECD countries have published projections or forecasts of future

energy consumption. By now, three decades later, the actual values of energy consumption are

available for the same number of countries and thus a considerable amount of empirical data is

available concerning formal hypothesis testing, e.g. whether there have been improvements in

the forecasting accuracy during this period. Using data for sixteen OECD countries the empirical

evidence weakly favors the hypothesis that these countries have made some advances in

forecasting accuracy concerning projections at the aggregate level of energy consumption and

to a lesser degree at sectoral levels. Also, in accordance with a priori expectations, the forecasting

failure is increasing with the length of the forecasting horizon.

Keywords: Energy demand projections; OECD countries; Forecasting accuracy; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C53; Q48; (follow links to similar papers)

15 pages, January 1, 2001

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