Working Papers, Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business, University of Aarhus
Has the accuracy of energy demand projections in the OECD countries improved since the 1970s?
() and Hans Linderoth
Abstract: Since the 1970s almost all OECD countries have published
projections or forecasts of future
energy consumption. By now, three
decades later, the actual values of energy consumption are
for the same number of countries and thus a considerable amount of
empirical data is
available concerning formal hypothesis testing, e.g.
whether there have been improvements in
the forecasting accuracy during
this period. Using data for sixteen OECD countries the empirical
evidence weakly favors the hypothesis that these countries have made some
forecasting accuracy concerning projections at the
aggregate level of energy consumption and
to a lesser degree at
sectoral levels. Also, in accordance with a priori expectations, the
failure is increasing with the length of the forecasting
Keywords: Energy demand projections; OECD countries; Forecasting accuracy; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C53; Q48; (follow links to similar papers)
15 pages, January 1, 2001
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