Working Papers, Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business, University of Aarhus
Peder J. Pedersen
EU Enlargement: Migration flows from Central and Eastern Europe into the Nordic countries - exploiting a natural experiment
() and Mariola Pytliková
Abstract: In this paper we look at migration flows from 10 Central
and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) to 5 Nordic countries over the years
1985 – 2007. We exploit a natural experiment that arose from the fact that
while Sweden opened its labour market from the day one of the 2004 EU
enlargement, and Finland and Iceland from year 2006, the other Nordic
countries chose a transition period in relation to the “new” EU members.
The results based on a differences-in-differences estimator show that the
estimated effect of the opening of the Swedish, Finnish and Icelandic
labour markets on migration from the CEECs that entered the EU in 2004 is
not significantly different from zero. However, the effect of the opening
of the Swedish and Finnish labour markets in 2007 on migration from the
2007 EU entrants, Bulgaria and Romania, is significantly positive. Further,
we are interested in the overall effect of the “EU entry” on migration.
Therefore we look at migration flows from CEECs during the first round of
EU enlargement towards the East in 2004 and compare them with migration
flows from Bulgaria and Romania. The estimated effect from our D-in-D
analyses is positive and significant in all model specifications.
Keywords: International migration; EU enlargement; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F22; J61; O15; (follow links to similar papers)
41 pages, December 1, 2008
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