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Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland

No 3/2005:
Equilibrium exchange rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?

Balázs Égert ()

Abstract: This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey. A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is conducted, combined with a careful analysis of country-specific factors. For Russia, a first look is taken at the Dutch Disease phenomenon as a possible driving force behind equilibrium exchange rates. A unified framework including productivity and net foreign assets completed with a set control variables such as openness, public debt and public expenditures is used to compute total real misalignment bands.

Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson; Dutch Disease; Bulgaria; Croatia; Romania; Russia; Ukraine; Turkey; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E31; O11; P17; (follow links to similar papers)

52 pages, June 27, 2005

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