BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland
Jiao Wang, David Mayes
Effects of WTO membership on income distribution and labour movement in China – A CGE analysis
() and Guanghua Wan
Abstract: Using a CGE model (PRCGEM) updated to 2002, the paper
explores how WTO membership could affect earnings in 40 industries across
31 regions (and 8 regional blocks) of China during the period 2002–2007.
Taking into account labour movement between regions within China, the
direct contribution of WTO membership to overall economic growth and
development is predicted to be small, with a rise in real GDP of only 6.48%
short term and 5.6% long term. However, structural economic change and the
WTO shock should increase regional output, especially in the established
coastal economies. Regional labour movement is found to increase 69.2% at
the completion of economic structural reforms. A slight decrease in the
Gini coefficient for income inequality is also anticipated.
Keywords: applied CGE modelling; China; WTO; labour movement; inequality; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C68; O18; R12; R23; (follow links to similar papers)
71 pages, December 30, 2005
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