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Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland

No 7/2008:
China in the world economy: Dynamic correlation analysis of business cycles

Jarko Fidrmuc, Iikka Korhonen () and Ivana Bátorová

Abstract: We analyze the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006 using dynamic correlations. Nearly all OECD countries showpositive correlations of the very hort-run developments which may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. However, dynamic correlations at the business cycle frequencies are negative. Countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China. Even though trade and financial flows do not really increase correlations of business cycles between China and OECD countries, they lower the degree of business cycle synchronization within the OECD area.

Keywords: business cycles; synchronization; trade; FDI; dynamic correlation; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E32; F15; F41; (follow links to similar papers)

24 pages, June 17, 2008

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