BOFIT Discussion Papers, Institute for Economies in Transition, Bank of Finland
No 22/2008:
Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China
Juuso Kaaresvirta ()
and Aaron Mehrotra
Abstract: We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank
of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced
forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model,
especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated
models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese
inflation, due to increases in food prices.
Keywords: inflation forecasting; business surveys; China; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C53; E31; (follow links to similar papers)
17 pages, November 23, 2008
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