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Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland

No 14/2010:
The feasibility of through-the-cycle ratings

Karlo Kauko ()

Abstract: It has been proposed that the potential procyclicality of Basel II could be alleviated by using through-the-cycle (TTC) ratings in IRBA models. A TTC rating would be based on the structural component of the debtor’s credit risk ignoring cyclical fluctuations. This paper tests for the existence of such fluctuations in corporate sector credit risk and finds vietually no evidence for their existence at the company level. It is not possible to assign satisfactory TTC ratings to debtors if there are no cyclical variations to be filtered out.

Keywords: through-the-cycle rating; credit risk; procyclicality; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: G21; G33; (follow links to similar papers)

32 pages, August 16, 2010

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