Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland
No 29/2014:
Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey
Sami Oinonen ()
and Maritta Paloviita ()
Abstract: This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations
based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse
possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point
forecasts and forecast uncertainties using approach, which is based on a
set of sub-panels of fixed composition. Our results indicate that the
unbalanced panel data do not cause systematic distortions to aggregated
survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would
also be useful, especially in times of wide disagreement across forecasters
and high levels of inflation uncertainty.
Keywords: survey data; expectations; changing panel composition; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C53; E31; E37; (follow links to similar papers)
24 pages, December 1, 2014
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