S-WoPEc
 
Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School Working Paper Series, Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School

No 2008-1:
The housing price downturn and its effects ? a discussion

Jens Lunde

Abstract: Housing markets in several countries are suffering. The prolonged and strong housing price rises of recent years have turned around. Historical records suggest that housing price drops may happen slowly but be large. Housing prices continue to fall because capital losses have substituted capital gains, housing equities are falling, and housing price expectations have become negative. Household debt had increased to the same degree as housing prices or even more in some countries. Access to mortgage and credit had improved and lenders used "cruise control” when financing still higher housing market prices. Now, housing demand is further weakened because access to credit has been tightened. During a downturn, owner-occupiers’ housing price risk is increased and a growing number of owners have negative equity and payment troubles. Under these conditions, arrears and foreclosures will be widespread in owner-occupation. The effects on the wider economy of a housing price downturn are discussed. Not only does the lenders’ increased credit risk lead to tightened credit access, losses threaten the banks and can create financial crises. Falling housing prices clearly depress the housing market and housing construction activities and thereby the contribution of residential investments to economic growth, while it is less obvious that average housing consumption and residential investments over the whole cycle are affected. The reduction of non-housing consumption as a result of a wealth effect is a reality for years for depressed owner-occupiers but in the aggregate, the housing wealth effect is more dubious.

Keywords: na; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: G30; (follow links to similar papers)

38 pages, January 1, 2008

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

7141    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Lars Nondal ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:cbsfin:2008_001 This page was generated on 2014-12-14 19:21:44