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Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School

No 02-1999:
RISIKO FOR KOLLAPS PÅ AKTIEMARKEDET- ELLER HVAD?

Jan Overgaard Olesen and Ole Risager

Abstract: Med afsæt i et historisk lavt dividende-pris (D-P) forhold har Tom Engsted & Carsten

Tanggaard prædikteret, at det danske aktiemarked vil falde med 50 % i.f.t niveauet i 1996,

idet en tilbagevenden af D-P ratioen til det historiske gennemsnit hævdes primært at komme i

stand via styrtdykkende aktie kurser. Forecastet bygger på den præmis, at D-P forholdet vil

vende tilbage til det historiske gennemsnit, men det behøver ingenlunde at være tilfældet

grundet fundamentalt ændrede skatteregler. Vi præsenterer alternative forecasts baseret ikke

kun på D-P ratioen, men også på en række andre nøgletal, jf. Olesen & Risager (1998). Disse

forecasts er ikke følsomme overfor præmisser vedrørende D-P forholdets tilbagevenden til det

historiske gennemsnit.

Keywords: Stock market; Denmark; D-P ratio; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: G19; (follow links to similar papers)

10 pages, January 1, 1999

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