Working papers in Transport Economics,
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)

Abstract: Waiting time uncertainty is one of the main determinants of public transport reliability and overall level-of-service. The dissemination of real-time information concerning vehicle arrivals is often considered an important measure to reduce unreliability. Moreover, the prediction of downstream vehicle trajectories could also benefit real-time control strategies. In order to adequately analyze the performance of real-time bus arrival information system, the generated predictions have to be compared against empirical bus arrival data. A conventional real-world bus arrival prediction scheme is formulated and applied on the trunk lines network in Stockholm. This scheme was found to systematically underestimate the remaining waiting time by 6.2% on average. Prediction error accuracy and reliability varies considerably over time periods, along the route and as a function of the prognosis horizon. The difference between passengers’ waiting time expectations derived from the timetable and real-time information is equivalent to 30% of the average waiting time.

Keywords: Public transport; Real-time information; Reliability; Prediction

JEL-codes: R40

8 pages, September 27, 2013

Full text files

CTS2013-25.pdf  

Download statistics

• CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)
• VTI
• KTH
• See also working Papers, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)
• Ordering Working Papers
• Instructions for Authors
• Home page for this series

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to CTS ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

This page generated on 2024-02-05 17:11:08.