Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI) CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)
Working papers in Transport Economics

No 2014:18:
The Swedish car fleet model: evaluation of recent applications

Muriel Beser Hugosson (), Staffan Algers (), Shiva Habibi () and Pia Sundbergh ()

Abstract: The composition of the car fleet with respect to age, fuel consumption and fuel types plays an important role on environmental effects, oil dependency and energy consumption. In Sweden, a number of different policies have been implemented to support CO2 emission reductions. In order to evaluate effects of different policies, a model for the evolution of the Swedish car fleet was developed in 2006. The model has been used in a number of projects since then, and it is now possible to compare forecasts with actual outcomes. Such evidence is relatively rare, and we think it may be useful to share our experience in this respect. We give a brief overview of the Swedish car fleet model. Then we describe policies that have been implemented in recent years and the evolution of the Swedish car fleet. We then focus on two projects which enable comparison with actual outcomes, and analyse the differences between forecasts and outcomes. We find that the model has weaknesses in catching car buyers’ preferences of new technology. When this is not challenged too much, the model can forecast reasonably well on an aggregate level. We also find that he model is quite sensitive to assumptions on future supply. This is not so much related to the model, but to its use. Depending on the use of the forecasts – be it car sales, emissions or fuel demand – it may be necessary to use different supply scenarios to get an idea of the robustness of the forecast result.

Keywords: Clean car policy; Car fleet model; Forecasting; Model evaluation; Scrapping model; Nested logit; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: R40; (follow links to similar papers)

25 pages, September 29, 2014, Revised November 10, 2014

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

CTS2014-18.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Mats Berggren ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2014_018 This page was generated on 2014-12-14 19:22:10