Working papers in Transport Economics
Appraisal of increased public transport capacity: the case of a new metro line to Nacka, Sweden
(), Jens West
() and Jonas Eliasson
Abstract: One of the most common motivations for public transport
investments is increased capacity. However, appraisal methodologies for
projects meant to increase capacity are relatively less well developed
compared to methodologies for projects aiming to reduce travel times. Each
of the consequences of capacity limitations - crowding, risk for denied
boarding and unreliable waiting and travel times - can increase the
generalized travel costs. The appraisal of capacity improvements requires
supply and demand models able to capture the processes that lead to uneven
distributions of vehicles and passengers and monetary valuations of e.g.
crowding, delays and unexpected waiting times. This paper integrates these
building blocks into a comprehensive framework for appraisal. A case study
of a metro extension that partially replaces an overloaded bus network in
Stockholm demonstrated that congestion effects may account for a
substantial share of the expected benefits. A cost-benefit analysis based
on a conventional static model will miss more than half of the benefits.
This suggests that failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may
substantially underestimate the benefits of projects primarily designed to
increase capacity rather than reduce travel times.
Keywords: Public transport; Capacity; Appraisal; Dynamic assignment; Cost-benefit analysis; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: R40; (follow links to similar papers)
24 pages, January 13, 2015
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- This paper is published as:
Cats, Oded, Jens West and Jonas Eliasson, (2016), 'Appraisal of increased public transport capacity: the case of a new metro line to Nacka, Sweden', Transportation Research B, Vol. 89, pages 43-57
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