Working papers in Transport Economics
Forecasting effects of congestion charges
(), Maria Börjesson
() and Leonid Engelson
Abstract: This paper performs an ex-post evaluation of the transport
model forecast of the effects of the Gothenburg congestion charges,
implemented in 2013. We find that the predicted traffic reductions across
the cordon and travel time gains were close to those observed in the peak.
However, the reduction in traffic across the cordon was under-predicted in
off-peak. The design of the charging system implies that the path
disutility cannot be computed as a sum of link attributes. The route choice
model is therefore implemented as a hierarchical algorithm, including a
continuous value of travel time (VTT) distribution. The VTT distribution
was estimated from stated choice (SC) data, but had to be adjusted to be
consistent with observed outcome. One reason for the discrepancy may be
that VTT inferred from SC data does not reveal travellers’ long-term
preferences. Another reason may be that apart from distance, travel time
and charge there are other factors that determine drivers’ route choice.
Keywords: Congestion charges; Transport model; Validation; Value of time; Volume delay function; Decision support; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: R41; R42; R48; (follow links to similar papers)
18 pages, March 29, 2016
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