Working papers in Transport Economics
A model for strategic planning of sustainable urban transport in Scandinavia: a case study of Uppsala
(), Bård Norheim
() and Mari Fossheim Betanzo
Abstract: Growing populations and car traffic in cities pose
challenges to city planners in the form of increased congestion on roads
and demand for parking, crowding in public transport and more car traffic
and may also affect safety and comfort in infrastructure for cycling.
Current Scandinavian transport planning models do not handle these factors
and solutions currently appear distant as good data is largely lacking.
This paper reports tests with the HUT-model using simplified
representations of these dimensions, intended for use in strategic
transport planning with focus on cities applied to the city of Uppsala. The
model also estimates costs for investment and operation of infrastructure,
public transport and social costs for environmental effects and public
funds. The tests suggest that these dimensions may have significant effects
on transport demand and hence on transport planning. The results indicate
that higher parking fees and more central location of new housing may be
effective in reducing car traffic and increasing the mode shares of
walking, cycling and public transport in Uppsala. Even stronger effects are
reported for a package of instruments. Consequently, public costs for these
policies are estimated to be about 25 percent lower than for the reference
scenario. In contrast increases in supply, lower charges, or concentration
of the capacity to bus trunk lines with increased speeds have smaller
effects on mode shares. Increased supply and lower charges are costly to
the public purse, whereas the trunk line policy has somewhat lower costs.
The central conclusion is that results appear to be plausible and the model
useful to planners.
Keywords: Demand model; Transport; Policy instrument; Cost; Sustainable; Urban; Land use; Parking; Public transport fare; Frequency; Trunk bus; Cycling; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: R14; R41; R48; R52; (follow links to similar papers)
31 pages, April 10, 2017
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