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FIEF - Trade Union Institute for Economic Research Working Paper Series, FIEF - Trade Union Institute for Economic Research

No 150:
The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows

Patrik Gustavsson and Jonas Nordström ()

Abstract: The effect of imposing different numbers of unit roots on forecasting accuracy is examined using univariate ARMA models. To see whether additional information improves forecasting accuracy and increases the informative forecast horizon, we cross-relate the time series for inbound tourism in Sweden for different visitor categories and estimate vector ARMA models. The mean-squared forecast error for different filters indicates that models in which unit roots are imposed at all frequencies have the smallest forecast errors. The results from the vector ARMA models with all roots imposed indicate that the informative forecast horizon is greater than for the univariate models. Out-of-sample evaluations indicate, however, that the univariate modelling approach may be preferable.

Keywords: Seasonality; Tourism; Demand Analysis; VARMA; Forecasting; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C22; C32; C53; D12; (follow links to similar papers)

22 pages, April 1, 1999, Revised July 1, 2000

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This paper is published as:
Gustavsson, Patrik and Jonas Nordström, (2001), 'The Impact of Seasonal Unit Roots and Vector ARMA Modeling on Forecasting Monthly Tourism Flows', Tourism Economics, Vol. 7, No. 2, pages 117-133



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