Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers in Economics,
University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics

No 20: Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

Douglas A. Hibbs Jr.
Additional contact information
Douglas A. Hibbs Jr.: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University, Postal: Department of Economics., School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG

Abstract: A simple "Bread and Peace" model shows that aggregate votes for President in postwar elections were determined entirely by weighted-average growth of real disposable personal income per capita during the incumbent party's term and the cumulative numbers of American military personnel killed in action as a result of U.S. interventions in the Korean and Vietnamese civil wars. The model is subjected to robustness tests against twenty-two variations in functional form inspired by the extensive literature on presidential voting. Not one of these variations adds value to the Bread and Peace model or significantly perturbs its coefficients.

Keywords: US presidential elections; presidential voting; elections and economics; elections and disposable income

JEL-codes: D72

42 pages, January 24, 2000

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