Working Papers in Economics,
University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics

Abstract: A potential Swedish membership in the third stage of the EMU (the currency union) will be determined in a referendum. The opinion polls preceding this referendum show strong variability in the Swedish public opinion over the last four years. In this paper I derive a simple theoretical model and test it empirically to establish the economic factors driving the opinion. I find that an increase in the nominal exchange rate variability makes the opinion more in favor of membership, while the opposite is true for unemployment variability.

Keywords: Public opinion; referenda; monetary union

JEL-codes: D72

21 pages, August 9, 2002

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