S-WoPEc
 
Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, Stockholm School of Economics SITE Working Paper Series

No 43:
From abnormal to normal—Two tales of growth from 25 years of transition

Torbjörn Becker () and Anders Olofsgård ()

Abstract: In this paper we look at the growth experience of 25 transition countries during the 25 years since the dissolution of the USSR. We find that compared to expectations from a parsimonious growth model the region in the 2000’s seems normal in terms of growth performance, i.e. transition in the region is over in this respect. Institutions, speed of reform and macro variables fail to show a stable correlation with (conditional) growth when comparing the early and later periods of transition. We also find that the countries in the former Soviet Union (FSU12), doing substantially worse during the 1990’s, in the 2000’s are performing better than the 10 countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 (EU10). This is partly explained by rising fuel prices but also point to strong macro forces of mean reversion. Despite this, the gap between the regions is wider in 2015 than in 1991, emphasizing the challenge of making up for deep crises. Finally, the model analysis suggests that looking forward the main challenge for the FSU12 countries (in particular the non-fuel exporters) is to promote more capital investment whereas the main challenge for EU10 is to increase the productivity of existing factors of production.

Keywords: Growth; transition countries; comparative performance; economic crisis; mean reversion; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: O00; P20; (follow links to similar papers)

33 pages, October 1, 2017

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

hasite0043.pdf    PDF-file (586kB) 
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Evelina Bonnier ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:hasite:0043 This page was generated on 2017-10-04 11:49:41