SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
No 442:
Predicting Survival in cost-effectiveness analyses based on clinical trials
Ulf-G Gerdtham ()
and Niklas Zethraeus ()
Abstract: This paper deals with the question how to model health
effects after the cessation of a randomised controlled trial (RCT). Using
clinical trial data on severe congestive heart failure patients we
illustrate how survival beyond the cessation of a RCT can be predicted
based on parametric survival models. In the analysis we compare the
predicted survival and the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio
(ICER) of different survival models with the actual survival/ICER. Our main
finding is that the results are highly sensitive to the choice of survival
model and that extensive sensitivity analysis in the CE analysis is
required. We also show that adding the true survival after the end of the
clinical study will underestimate the true variability.
Keywords: cost-effectiveness analysis; modelling; confidence intervals; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: I10; I12; I19; (follow links to similar papers)
22 pages, May 8, 2001
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