SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
Risk and Mortality of Recurrent Breast Cancer in Stockholm 1985-2005
(), Jonas Lundkvist, Frida Kasteng, Mathias Lidgren, Jan Adolfsson, Jonas Bergh, Tommy Fornander and Nils Wilking
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk and
mortality of breast cancer recurrences in Swedish women, and to analyse
changes over time and variations between patients in different risk groups.
Such estimates are of key importance for modelling the cost-effectiveness
of different strategies for adjuvant treatment of breast cancer.
study was based on all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Stockholm
County between 1985 and 2005. Information about dates for locoregional
recurrences, metastatic relapses, new contralateral tumours and death was
collected. Cox proportional hazard and Weibull regression models were used
to estimate survival functions, where year of diagnosis (dived into 5-year
intervals), were included as explanatory variables in the models.
risk of recurrences has decreased during the last 20 years for all three
types of recurrence; for metastatic relapse the 5-year risk was reduced
from 12.9% to 6.0% from 1985-90 to 2000-2005 . Mortality has also been
reduced, resulting in an increased 5-year survival from 52.6% to 64.1%
after locoregional recurrence and from 10.4% to 15.5% for metastatic
relapse. For contralateral tumours, with a 5-year survival rate of 74.6% in
1985-1990 and 78% 2000-2005, no significant increase was observed. Analysis
of risk groups according to TNM classification showed large difference in
the risk of metastatic breast cancer between the three defined groups, but
small differences for the risk of locoregional recurrences and new
The findings indicate that the early detection
and new treatments have been successful in improving outcome for breast
cancer patients and that it is important to use up-to-date information,
when assessing the value of new treatment options.
Keywords: Breast cancer; Mortality; Survival; Recurrence; Sweden; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: I10; (follow links to similar papers)
19 pages, May 7, 2007
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Full text versions of the paper:
Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Helena Lundin ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Design by Joachim Ekebom