Working Paper Series
IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy
Jaap H Abbring
Social experiments and intrumental variables with duration outcomes
() and Gerard J van den Berg
Abstract: This paper examines the empirical analysis of treatment
effects on duration outcomes from data that contain instrumental variation.
We focus on social experiments in which an intention to treat is randomized
and compliance may be imperfect. We distinguish between cases where the
treatment starts at the moment of randomization and cases where it starts
at a later point in time. We derive exclusion restrictions under various
informational and behavioral assumptions and we analyze identifiability
under these restrictions. It turns out that randomization (and by
implication, instrumental variation) by itself is often insufficient for
inference on interesting effects, and needs to be augmented by a
semi-parametric structure. We develop corresponding non- and
semi-parametric tests and estimation methods.
Keywords: Event-history analysis; intention to treat; non-compliance; policy evaluation; selection; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C14; C31; C41; (follow links to similar papers)
39 pages, May 3, 2005
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