Working Paper Series
IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy
University entrance selection and age at admission
() and Magnus Wikström
Abstract: This paper focuses on the predictive validity of the upper
secondary grade point average (GPA), when used as selection instrument to
higher education. The purpose of the paper is to find out if the predictive
strength of the GPA is affected by time, here measured as the time that has
passed between when the grades were received (graduation) and university
entrance. The data includes approximately 5 900 students admitted to a
Business administration or an Economics programme in a Swedish university
between the years 1993 to 1996. The predictive validity is studied by
correlating the GPA from upper secondary school for the students from each
age group with their academic performance, measured by university credits.
The results show that there is a weak positive correlation between grades
and university credits, but that the predictive strenght decreases with
time, to be insignificant about three years after upper secondary school
completion. Implications are discussed.
Keywords: admission; selection; prediction; higher education; validity; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: I21; (follow links to similar papers)
22 pages, November 24, 2012
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