Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies

No 2004:5:
Forecasting global growth by age structure projections

Bo Malmberg () and Thomas Lindh ()

Abstract: Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.

Keywords: Global growth; age structure; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: J10; (follow links to similar papers)

31 pages, August 2004

ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-53-2

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

20051201134206filBLStD87hQfBn320qrUPl.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Erika Karlsson ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2004_005 This page was generated on 2016-04-14 21:03:07