Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies
Forecasting global growth by age structure projections
() and Thomas Lindh
Abstract: Demographic projections of age structure provide the best
information available on long-term human resources and demand. In current
data fairly robust correlations with GDP and GDP growth have been
discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting
properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050
suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start
to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will
stagnate due to the growth of the retired population.
Keywords: Global growth; age structure; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: J10; (follow links to similar papers)
31 pages, August 2004
ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-53-2
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