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Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies

No 2004:7:
Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050

Bo Malmberg () and Thomas Lindh ()

Abstract: Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. In current data fairly robust correlations between age structure and GDP and GDP growth have been discovered. In this paper we use these two facts and study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that due to fertility decreases poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. That remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account.

Keywords: demographic projections; global income; long-term forecasts; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: J11; (follow links to similar papers)

30 pages, September 28, 2004

ISSN 1652-120X, ISBN 91-89655-56-7

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