Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies
Simulating the Future Pension Wealth and Retirement Saving in Sweden
(), Björn Andersson
() and Thomas Lindh
Abstract: In this paper the wealth consequences of the Swedish
pension system in the transition from a defined benefit to notional defined
contribution system are simulated with almost exact institutional detail,
using life cycle profiles estimated from detailed longitudinal micro data.
Projected wealth, including different types of pension wealth, are computed
and compared between cohorts, gender, wealth deciles and occupational
categories. Consistent saving rates and replacement rates allowing
consumption to stay constant after retirement are computed. Two different
macroeconomic scenarios are considered, one using stylised values for
growth, inflation etc. and another using demographically based forecasts.
Some conclusions are that the cohorts born in the 1940s are relatively
favoured, and so are the wealthiest deciles. Stylised macro assumptions
yield more optimistic wealth projections than those corresponding to
demographically based projections.
Keywords: Future Pension Wealth; Retirement Saving in Sweden; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: G23; H55; J14; (follow links to similar papers)
59 pages, September 2004
ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-64-8
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