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Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies

No 2005:6:
Simulating the Future Pension Wealth and Retirement Saving in Sweden

Anna Röstberg (), Björn Andersson () and Thomas Lindh ()

Abstract: In this paper the wealth consequences of the Swedish pension system in the transition from a defined benefit to notional defined contribution system are simulated with almost exact institutional detail, using life cycle profiles estimated from detailed longitudinal micro data. Projected wealth, including different types of pension wealth, are computed and compared between cohorts, gender, wealth deciles and occupational categories. Consistent saving rates and replacement rates allowing consumption to stay constant after retirement are computed. Two different macroeconomic scenarios are considered, one using stylised values for growth, inflation etc. and another using demographically based forecasts. Some conclusions are that the cohorts born in the 1940s are relatively favoured, and so are the wealthiest deciles. Stylised macro assumptions yield more optimistic wealth projections than those corresponding to demographically based projections.

Keywords: Future Pension Wealth; Retirement Saving in Sweden; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: G23; H55; J14; (follow links to similar papers)

59 pages, September 2004

ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-64-8

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