Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies
Welfare States, Social Structure and the Dynamics of Poverty Rates. A comparative study of 16 countries, 1980-2000.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is twofold. The primary purpose
is to try and explain both the temporal and the spatial variation of
poverty rates in terms of unemployment insurance indicators and
structural/sociodemographic factors. Secondly, the paper aims to test the
'convergence hypothesis' of the poverty rate, i.e. whether or not poverty
rates in modern welfare states have converged in recent decades.
analyses tentatively suggest that structural change in terms of the
unemployment rate, the proportion of single-earner households, the female
labour-force participation rate, and the proportion of families with
children primarily explains the temporal variation in poverty rates. The
unemployment insurance factors primarily explain the spatial variation,
i.e. variation between countries. In part, however, the temporal variation
is explained but the cuts in net replacements in unemployment insurance.
This factor alone explains a larger share of the overall variance than all
the structural factors put together.
Where the convergence hypothesis
is concerned, a random-effects model is proposed as a statistical tool for
testing convergence (and disperson). The results of this analysis suggest
that for the 16 countries and the time frame under review the convergence
hypothesis must be rejected, an outcome that is in line with some other
analyses presented recently.
Keywords: Welfare States; Social Structure; Poverty Rates; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: I30; (follow links to similar papers)
32 pages, April 2005
ISSN 1652-120X ISBN 91-89655-65-6
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