Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies
David de la Croix, Thomas Lindh
Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society
() and Bo Malmberg
Abstract: Aging of the population will affect the growth path of all
countries. To assess the historical and future importance of this claim we
use two popular approaches and evaluate their merits and disadvantages by
confronting them to Swedish data. We first simulate an endogenous growth
model with human capital linking demographic changes and income growth.
Rising longevity increases the incentive to get education, which in turn
has ever-lasting effects on growth through a human capital externality.
Secondly, we consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the
demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP
guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from
post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth.
Comparing the two approaches, encompassing tests show that each of them
contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting
that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.
Keywords: aging population; growth path; long-term forecasting; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: J11; (follow links to similar papers)
37 pages, June 2006
ISSN 1652-120X; ISBN 13: 978-91-89655-92-8; ISBN 10: 91-89655-92-3
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Full text versions of the paper:
Files with additional material for the paper:
appendix-2006.92.pdf Bilaga till arbetsrapport,
Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Erika Karlsson ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Design by Joachim Ekebom