Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies
Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector
(), Daniel Hallberg
() and Thomas Lindh
Abstract: There is plenty of evidence that growth has a negative
relation to fertility and dependency ratios. Recently it has been suggested
that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get
out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction
and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms
are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent based
simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a
stable growth and population path is provoked into a fertility trap by
rising relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large
increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap.
However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to
grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms
turns out to disarm the trap.
Keywords: low fertility trap; social norms relative income; economic growth; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: J12; J13; (follow links to similar papers)
35 pages, October 2008
ISSN: 1652-120X; ISBN: 978-91-85619-35-1
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Full text versions of the paper:
- This paper is published as:
Zamac, Jovan, Daniel Hallberg and Thomas Lindh, (2010), 'Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector', European Journal of Population, Vol. 26, No. 2, pages 183-205
Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Erika Karlsson ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Design by Joachim Ekebom