Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies Arbetsrapport, Institutet för Framtidsstudier - Institute for Futures Studies

No 2009:3:
Från shopping till sanningsserum. En typologi över förutsägelser

Ann Bergman and Jan Ch Karlsson

Abstract: The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are then: Forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); which make truth claims, but not ex¬planatory claims (prognoses); which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and which make neither truth claims nor explana¬tory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typol¬ogy by presenting a Swedish example of each outcome. The prediction is Dahlbom’s The future of Sweden (Sveriges framtid), the prognosis is Wahl¬ström’s After the acid test (Efter stålbadet), the science fiction contribution is Martinson’s Aniara, and the dystopia is Boye’s Kallocain.

Keywords: typology of forecasts; forecasts; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: Z00; (follow links to similar papers)

29 pages, March 2009

ISSN:1652-120X; ISBN:978-91-85619-42-9

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

20090401112913filHV7Ih5AnWpW92Z3GLe7U.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Erika Karlsson ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:ifswps:2009_003 This page was generated on 2016-04-14 21:03:08