Seminar Papers, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University
No 718:
Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession
Harry Flam ()
Abstract: This paper identifies and discusses important political
and economic aspects of Turkish accession to the EU. Under the present
rules, Turkey’s size would give it the greatest number of votes within
twenty years and its low income and dependence on agriculture the largest
net transfer from other members. Free labor mobility would lead to
substantial migration to the present EU; the Turkish immigrant population
in Germany may increase from 2 to 3.5 million in thirty years. Most of the
economic effects will be felt by Turkey, particularly in agriculture. The
main obstacles to accession are not economic, but political, however.
Historical experience makes it difficult for Turkey to eliminate the
decisive political role of the military, to give Kurds and other minorities
cultural rights and uphold basic human rights; these issues are perceived
to threaten national unity and territorial integrity. Turkish membership is
resisted by many in the EU because Turkey is not considered to be part of
Europe geographically and culturally.
Keywords: Turkey; Economics of Accession; EU; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: F00; (follow links to similar papers)
53 pages, February 6, 2003
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