INDEK Working Paper Series,
Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Industrial Economics and Management

Abstract: This paper presents a Finite Element Model, which has been used for forecasting the diffusion of innovations in time and space. Unlike conventional models used in diffusion literature, the model considers spatial heterogeneity. The implementation steps of the model are explained by applying it to the case of diffusion of photovoltaic systems in a local region in southern Germany. The applied model is based on a parabolic partial differential equation that describes the diffusion ratio of photovoltaic systems in a given region over time. The results of the application suggest that the Finite Element Model could be a powerful tool to improve our understanding on the diffusion of innovations as a simultaneous space-time process. For future research, model limitations and possible extensions are also discussed.

Keywords: Innovation; Adoption; Spatiotemporal; prediction; solar photovoltaics

JEL-codes: C02; C63; O33; Q55; R00

23 pages, July 24, 2014

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