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Department of Economics, Lund University Working Papers, Department of Economics, Lund University

No 2008:4:
Detection Biases in Bluffing

Håkan J. Holm ()

Abstract: Beliefs in signals that reveal lies or truths are widespread. These signals may lead to a truth or lie detection bias if the probability that such a signal is perceived by the receiver is contingent on the truth value of the sender’s message. Such detection biases are analyzed theoretically in a bluffing game. The detection bias shrinks the equilibrium set to a unique non-pooling equilibrium, in which the better a player is at detecting lies the more often the opponent player will lie. With proper deception techniques such biases can in principle be used to extract hidden information.

Keywords: Bluffing; Game theory; Truth detection; Lie detection; Detection bias; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C72; D82; (follow links to similar papers)

18 pages, February 29, 2008

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