Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Department of Economics, Lund University Working Papers, Department of Economics, Lund University

No 2008:16:
The Age of Turbulence - Credit Derivatives Style

Hans Byström ()

Abstract: This paper focuses on the many extreme credit default swap spread movements observed during the recent credit crisis and on how the tails of the spread (and price) change distribution significantly differ from those of the normal distribution even for diversified credit derivatives portfolios. Particular focus is put on the sudden shift in the behavior of the credit default swap market in the summer of 2007. During the first month of the crisis, July 2007, we find the extreme turbulence in the credit derivatives market to be comparable only to the turmoil in the equity market in October 1987 and in October 2008. As a result of this extreme behavior and the dramatic regime shift observed in 2007, credit derivatives portfolio Value at Risk estimates based on extreme value theory are found to be much more accurate than those based on normal or historical distributions, both during the crisis and in the comparably tranquil times leading up to the crisis.

Keywords: value at risk; VaR; extreme value theory; credit default swap index; credit crisis; credit derivative; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C16; G01; G10; G33; (follow links to similar papers)

20 pages, November 25, 2008, Revised June 16, 2010

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

WP08_16.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to David Edgerton ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2008_016 This page was generated on 2014-12-14 19:24:56