Working Papers, Department of Economics, Lund University
Are Crime Rates Really Stationary?
() and Blomquist Johan
Abstract: Many empirical studies of the economics of crime focus
solely on the determinants thereof, and do not consider the dynamic and
cross-sectional properties of their data. As a response to this, the
current paper offers an in-depth analysis of this issue using data covering
21 Swedish counties from 1975 to 2008. The results suggest that the four
crime types considered are non-stationary, and that this cannot be
attributed to county specific disparities, but rather that it is due to a
small number of common stochastic trends to which groups of counties tend
to revert. The results further suggest that these trends can be given a
macroeconomic interpretation. Our findings are consistent with recent
theoretical models predicting that crime should be dependent across both
time and counties.
Keywords: Crime; Non-stationary data; Panel unit root tests; Common factor; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C32; C33; E20; K40; (follow links to similar papers)
44 pages, December 21, 2009
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