Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Department of Economics, Lund University Working Papers, Department of Economics, Lund University

No 2014:34:
Credit-Implied Equity Volatility – Long-Term Forecasts and Alternative Fear Gauges

Hans Byström ()

Abstract: This study discusses how to compute and forecast long-term stock return volatilities, typically with a 5-year horizon or longer, using credit derivatives, and how such volatilities can be used in different areas ranging from the valuation of employee stock options and other long-term derivatives to the construction of market-based fear gauges in selected countries or market segments. In the empirical part of the paper I focus on the European financial sector and find the credit-implied volatilities and fear gauges to behave well. The forecasting accuracy of the credit-implied volatilities is found to be better than that of horizon-matched historical volatilities.

Keywords: credit default swaps; implied volatility; CreditGrades; VIX; fear gauge; long-term forecast; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: G10; (follow links to similar papers)

46 pages, September 4, 2014

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

wp14_34.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to David Edgerton ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2014_034 This page was generated on 2014-12-14 19:25:03