S-WoPEc
 
Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies, Lund University Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies, Lund University

No 2015/1:
A Power Market Forward Curve with Hydrology Dependence An Approach based on Artificial Neural Networks

Rikard Green ()

Abstract: This paper develops an hourly forward curve for power markets where the intra-day and intra-week shapes (profiles) depend on the level of the hydrological balance. The shaping model is based on a feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which is trained on a historical data set of hourly electricity spot prices from the Nord Pool market and weekly measurements of the Nordic hydrological balance. The yearly seasonal cycle is estimated with historical electricity forward prices from the Nasdaq OMX Commodities exchange. We calibrate the shaping model to prevailing electricity forward prices and proceed to demonstrate its most important properties. By using comparative static analysis we particulary focus on the hydro dependence of the shapes. We conclude the paper with a real world valuation task. By combining our proposed forward curve with a simple Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process we price a strip of hourly call options on the electricity spot price under different hydrological scenarios.

Keywords: Power markets; forward curve; seasonality; artificial neural networks; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C45; C51; G13; Q41; (follow links to similar papers)

32 pages, January 26, 2015

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

kwc-2015-1.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Frederik Lundtofte () or Niclas Andrén ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:luwick:2015_001 This page was generated on 2015-01-26 14:57:51