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Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)

No 10/2010:
Cartels Uncovered.

Ari Hyytinen, Frode Steen () and Otto Toivanen

Abstract: How many cartels are there? The answer is important in assessing the efficiency of competition policy. We present a Hidden Markov Model that answers the question, taking into account that often we do not know whether a cartel exists in an industry or not. Our model identifies key policy parameters from data generated under different competition policy regimes and may be used with time-series or panel data. We take the model to data from a period of legal cartels - Finnish manufacturing industries 1951 - 1990. Our estimates suggest that by the end of the period, almost all industries were cartelized.

Keywords: Antitrust; cartel; competition; detection; Hidden Markov models; illegal; legal; leniency; policy; registry.; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: L00; L40; L41; L60; (follow links to similar papers)

47 pages, March 16, 2010

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