Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
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Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) Discussion Paper Series in Economics, Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)

No 20/2014:
Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models.

Arturo Ormeno () and Krisztina Molnar ()

Abstract: Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? We address this question by using survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptive learning. The survey information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps us to determine the learning agents' forecasting model for in ation. Adaptive learning fares similarly to rational expectations in fitting macro data, but clearly outperforms rational expectations in fitting macro and survey data simultaneously. In other words survey data contains additional information that is not present in the macro data alone.

Keywords: Survey data; learning; rational expectations; inflation expectations; Bayesian econometrics.; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C61; D84; E30; E52; (follow links to similar papers)

32 pages, June 30, 2014

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