Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research
Exports in the Econometric Model KOSMOS
Abstract: Equations for exports of manufactured goods and for
services in KOSMOS, the macroeconometric model at NIER, are estimated. The
equations are interpreted as representing foreign demand for Swedish
exports. The formulation is based on the Armington-assumption and demand
depends on a measure of foreign income and the Swedish export price,
relative to a measure of the competitor's price. The parameterestimates in
both equations are reasonable and the forecasting behavior of the models is
acceptable. The estimated long run price elasticities are: -1.3 for
manufactured goods, and -0.7 for services. The estimated long run income
elasticities are: 0.8 for manufactured goods, and 1.2 for services.
15 pages, August 1, 1998
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