Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research
Future Waste Scenarios for Sweden based on a CGE-model
() and Göran Östblom
Abstract: Over the last decades, waste quantities have grown
steadily in close relation to economic growth. To tackle the problem of
continuing waste growth within the EU, waste prevention was listed among
four top priorities in the EU Sixth environment Action Programme. A
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is here used for projecting
future quantities of hazardous and non-hazardous waste in Sweden to 2030.
The effects of driving forces behind waste generation are illustrated by
comparing the results of waste projections for a Baseline scenario and four
alternative scenarios. The scenarios differ mainly in GDP growth rates and
in the assumptions about future waste intensities of the economic
activities of firms and households. We use a high-resolution data set on
waste flows of 18 various types of non-hazardous waste and 16 various types
of hazardous waste attributed to six waste-generating sources for the base
year 2006. Waste generated in the scenarios, thus, relate to firms’
material input, output, employees, capital scrapping and fuel combustion as
well as households’ consumption. The impact of economic growth in
increasing the generation of nonhazardous and hazardous waste is apparent
when comparing the growth of waste from 2006 to 2030 in the five scenarios.
On the contrary, technological change resulting in less waste intensive
production processes and changed behaviour among households, making their
activities less waste intensive, have a strong reducing effect, especially
on generation of non-hazardous waste relating to firms’ material input.
Keywords: general equilibrium model; waste generation; decoupling; waste intensities waste scenarios.; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C68; D20; H23; R48; (follow links to similar papers)
42 pages, February 28, 2009
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