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Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research

No 117:
The Persistent Labour-Market Effects of the Financial Crisis

Pär Österholm () and Marcus Mossfeldt ()

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish labour market. Using an unobserved components model and an external forecast, we estimate a future path for the NAIRU. Judging by this analysis, the labour market will be in equilibrium again in 2013. Linking the NAIRU to other labour-market variables through an estimated vector error correction model and population projections, it is found that this new equilibrium is associated with a smaller equilibrium labour force and lower equilibrium employment.

Keywords: Discouraged worker; Unobserved components; Cointegration; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E24; (follow links to similar papers)

29 pages, March 1, 2010

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