Working Paper, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research
No 117:
The Persistent Labour-Market Effects of the Financial Crisis
Pär Österholm ()
and Marcus Mossfeldt ()
Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of the financial crisis
on the Swedish labour market. Using an unobserved components model and an
external forecast, we estimate a future path for the NAIRU. Judging by this
analysis, the labour market will be in equilibrium again in 2013. Linking
the NAIRU to other labour-market variables through an estimated vector
error correction model and population projections, it is found that this
new equilibrium is associated with a smaller equilibrium labour force and
lower equilibrium employment.
Keywords: Discouraged worker; Unobserved components; Cointegration; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: E24; (follow links to similar papers)
29 pages, March 1, 2010
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