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Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research

No 121:
The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations

Thomas Jonsson () and Pär Österholm ()

Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.

Keywords: Survey data; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E52; J30; (follow links to similar papers)

24 pages, September 2010

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