Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research
The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations
() and Pär Österholm
Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth
expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither
unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting
performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse
than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the
inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that
caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.
Keywords: Survey data; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: E52; J30; (follow links to similar papers)
24 pages, September 2010
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