Working Paper, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research
No 121:
The Forecasting Properties of Survey-Based Wage-Growth Expectations
Thomas Jonsson ()
and Pär Österholm ()
Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate survey-based wage-growth
expectations in Sweden. Results show that the expectations are neither
unbiased nor efficient forecasts. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting
performance, we find that the survey participants generally perform worse
than a con-stant forecast based on reasonable assumptions regarding the
inflation target and productivity growth. Our findings indicate that
caution should be exercised when relying on these data for policymaking.
Keywords: Survey data; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: E52; J30; (follow links to similar papers)
24 pages, September 2010
Before downloading any of the electronic versions below
you should read our statement on
copyright.
Download GhostScript
for viewing Postscript files and the
Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.
Full text versions of the paper:
WP_121.pdf 
Download Statistics
Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Britta Larsson ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ()
or Helena Lundin ().
Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom
