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Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research

No 130:
Survey Data and Short-Term Forecasts of Swedish GDP Growth

Pär Österholm ()

Abstract: In this paper, the author evaluates forecasting models for Swedish GDP growth which make use of data from Sweden´s most important business survey, the Economic Tendency Survey.

Employing nine years of quarterly real-time data, an out-of-sample forecast exercise is conducted. Results indicate that the survey data have informational value that can be used to improve forecasts, thereby confirming the empirical relevance of survey data for GDP forecasters.

Keywords: Out-of-sample forecasts; Real-time data; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E22; E27; (follow links to similar papers)

15 pages, September 13, 2013

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