Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research

No 131:
Forecasting Business Investment in the Short Term Using Survey Data

Pär Österholm ()

Abstract: In this paper, forecasting models for Swedish business investment growth which make use of data from Sweden’s most important business survey – the Economic Tendency Survey – are evaluated.

An out-of-sample forecast exercise using nine years of quarterly real-time data is conducted. The results suggest that the survey data have informational value that can be used to improve forecasts.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the time series with the highest predictive power for business investment growth tend to be based on data for the investment goods industry. Forecasts based on a simple arithmetic mean of individual model forecasts do well in the evaluation and should accordingly be useful when forecasting Swedish business investment in practice.

Keywords: Out-of-sample forecasts; Real-time data; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E22; E27; (follow links to similar papers)

15 pages, November 19, 2013

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

Working-Paper-131-Forecas ... erm-Using-Survey+Data.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Sarah Hegardt Grant ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0131 This page was generated on 2016-12-07 23:04:11