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Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research

No 136:
A Statistical Analysis of Revisions of Swedish National Accounts Data

Caroline Flodberg () and Pär Österholm ()

Abstract: In this paper, we study revisions of Swedish national accounts data. Three aspects of the revisions are considered: volatility, unbiasedness and forecast efficiency. Our results indicate that the properties of the revisions are more problematic for the production side than for the expenditure side. The high volatility of the revisions on the production side indicates that it, based on the initial data release, generally is difficult to make clear cut statements concerning production in different industries within the business sector; it is also likely to make forecasting more difficult. Concerning unbiasedness, there appears to be shortcomings for a number of variables, including GDP; this finding implies that it could be possible to improve the production of the Swedish national accounts data.

Keywords: Real-time data; Volatility; Unbiasedness; Forecast efficiency; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: E01; (follow links to similar papers)

34 pages, February 4, 2015

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