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Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research

No 143:
Quasi-Real-Time Data of the Economic Tendency Survey

Maria Billstam (), Kristina Frändén, Johan Samuelsson () and Pär Österholm ()

Abstract: Survey data from businesses and households are widely used for fore-casting and economic analysis. In Sweden, the most important survey of this kind is the Economic Tendency Survey of the National Institute of Economic Research. A shortcoming with this survey is that real-time data of it largely are unavailable. In this paper, we describe how two quasi-real-time data sets of this survey have been constructed and made publicly available – one monthly and one quarterly. The data sets consist of monthly/quarterly vintages of the most important series of the survey, including the main confidence indicators. A natural usage of these data sets is evaluations of model-based forecasts and nowcasts. We illustrate this with an application to Swedish GDP growth. This shows that all models based on indicators from the Economic Tendency Survey, except the one relying on the confidence indicator for the construction industry, have higher forecast precision than the benchmark models.

Keywords: Data revisions; Nowcasting; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: C83; E17; (follow links to similar papers)

30 pages, April 26, 2016

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