Working Papers, Konjunkturinstitutet - National Institute of Economic Research
Forecasting Employment Growth in Sweden Using a Bayesian VAR Model
Abstract: In this paper, Bayesian VAR models are used to forecast
employment growth in Sweden. Using quarterly data from 1996 to 2015, we
conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise. Results indicate that the
forecasting performance at short horizons can be improved when survey data
is included, such as employment expectations in the business sector and
forward-looking variables from the trade sector.
Keywords: Bayesian VAR model; employment forecasting; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C11; E24; (follow links to similar papers)
16 pages, June 8, 2016
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