Working Paper Series,
Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract: This paper proposes the use of the two-factor term-structure model of Longstaff and Schwartz (1992a,LS) to estimate the risk-neutral density (RND) of the futur short-term interest rate. THe resulting RND can be interpreted as the market´s estimate of the density of the future short-term interest rate. As such, it provides a useful financial indicator of the perceived uncertainty of future developements in the short-term interest rate. The LS approach used in this paper provides an alternative to option-based estimation procedures, which may be useful in situations where options markets are not sufficiently developed to allow estimation of the implied distribution from observed option prices. A simulation-based comparison of these two approachs reveals that the differences in the results are relatively small in magnitude, at least for short forecast horizons. Furthermore, the LS model is quite successful in capturing the asymmetries of the true distribution. It is therefore concluded that the LS model can be useful for estimating the distribution of future interest rates, when the the purpose is to provide a general measure of the market´s perceived uncertainty, for example as an indicator for monetary policy purposes.

Keywords: Term structure of interest rates; Monetary policy indicators

JEL-codes: E50

40 pages, August 1, 2000

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