Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Working Paper Series,
Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)
No 114: Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models
Jesper Lindé ()
Additional contact information
Jesper Lindé: Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract: In this paper, I investigate quantitatively how sensitive a typical backward-looking model used in monetary plicy analysis is to the Lucas critique. To do this, I use an equilibrium business cycle model with a Taylor-type rule for nominal money growth. The backward-looking model displays considerable parameter instability, both from a statistical and economic point of view, when the parameters in the estimated monetary policy ruel change. THe findings suggest that the robustness of the conclusions in the literature on the relative merits of an alternative monetary policy rules should be checked in an equilibrium framework.
Keywords: Lucas critique; Real business cycle model; Taylor rules; Aggregate supply; Aggregate demand
30 pages, November 1, 2000
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WP_114.pdf
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